I couldn't help but chuckle when I read recently that India plans to expand coal power by 56 gigawatts through 2030. It just goes to show that this whole "coal is dead" narrative is fanciful dreaming by Western environmentalists. The reality is that major developing economies like India still rely on good ol' coal to power their growth.
Don't get me wrong, I know coal isn't clean. But for a country with over 1.3 billion people trying to industrialize and reduce poverty, energy security trumps emissions for now. India makes no bones about prioritizing growth over climate in the near term.
And honestly, who can blame them? The West was able to develop and get rich off the back of fossil fuels. Now the West wants India to cut back for the sake of the planet? I'm sure that just thrills Indian policymakers trying to bring electricity to rural villages.
Do I think India should maybe ease up on the coal addiction eventually? Sure. But change takes time. They are expanding renewables as well. Trying to force India's hand on coal will just backfire.
As an investor, India's coal habit doesn't surprise me one bit. Developing nations will keep using their most reliable energy sources, like it or not. Renewables aren't ready to shoulder the load alone quite yet in a massive country like India.
This is why I roll my eyes when investors get over-eager about the speed of the global energy transition. News flash – it's going to happen unevenly across countries. Coal will stick around as a major fuel even as nuclear, solar, and wind boom.
My advice is to wake up and smell the coal fumes. Be pragmatic. Don't buy into activists' dream scenarios. India reveals the messier reality.
For contrarian investors like us, that also creates opportunities. Keep an eye out for the 'next India' that decides coal remains crucial for powering development. Their continued addiction means coal won't vanish as fast as some hope.
So let India build those coal plants. The energy transition was never going to follow a straight line. By facing reality, we can spot the investing angles most others miss. That's how we'll stay ahead of the pack.